OpenAI’s ChatGPT is losing ground in the generative AI race. New data from Similarweb’s Global AI Tracker shows the chatbot’s share of website traffic dropped from 87.2% to 68% over the past 12 months. That’s a staggering 19-point decline for the platform that once dominated the market.
Google Gemini is the clear winner in this shift. The AI assistant more than tripled its market share, climbing from 5.4% to 18.2% in the same period. Market analysts are calling it a definitive turning point.
“That is not noise,” noted Solid Finance CEO Sam Badawi in response to the data. “If you believe web behavior reflects user preference at scale, then this is the clearest signal that Google is not only in the game, it is winning share.”
What’s Driving Gemini’s Growth?
Gemini’s surge likely stems from several factors. The launch of Gemini 3 and especially the Nano Banana Pro image generator gave users compelling reasons to switch.
Even after ChatGPT rolled out its own image update, Gemini still leads on quality for complex prompts and text handling.
Google’s integration strategy is paying off. By embedding Gemini across Search, Workspace, and Android, the company removed the friction of switching apps.
Users encounter AI capabilities within existing workflows rather than navigating to a separate platform.
Gemini’s user base expanded from 450 million monthly active users in July to 650 million in October 2025, representing a 44% increase over just three months.
The Rest of the Pack
The data from December 25, 2025 reveals a fragmenting market beyond the top two players:
- Grok (X.AI): 2.9% – showing modest growth through X/Twitter integration
- DeepSeek: ~4% – surged earlier but plateaued amid geopolitical concerns
- Claude: ~2% – steady despite strong funding from Anthropic
- Perplexity: ~2.1% – competitive but lacking distribution advantages
- Microsoft Copilot: 1.2% – flat despite being pre-installed on Windows and Edge
The Copilot stagnation offers a warning: distribution alone doesn’t guarantee success. While Microsoft baked its AI into every Windows machine, users haven’t converted into regular visitors. Product trust matters more than pre-installation.
OpenAI’s Monetization Challenge
ChatGPT still commands the largest absolute user base, reaching 900 million weekly users. But there’s a critical problem: 95% of them pay nothing. OpenAI faces urgency in converting free-tier users to paid subscribers as alternatives multiply.
The company has responded with increased advertising efforts and enterprise sales focus. ChatGPT also refined its search functionality throughout 2025, reducing hallucinations and improving answer formatting.
What This Means for the AI Market
Market share trajectories suggest stabilization around 3-4 major platforms rather than winner-take-all dominance. Each competitor brings distinct advantages: Google has distribution, OpenAI has developer ecosystems, Microsoft and Anthropic have enterprise relationships, and X has platform integration with Grok.
The AI chatbot wars have entered a multi-player phase where distribution advantages matter as much as model quality. ChatGPT’s relative decline signals market fragmentation, not necessarily platform weakness.
Source: Similarweb Global AI Tracker
