CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) shares rallied nearly 20% on December 19, 2025, marking a dramatic turnaround for the AI infrastructure provider after months of steep declines. The surge came on the back of two major catalysts: Citigroup resuming coverage with a Buy rating and the company’s inclusion in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Genesis Mission.
Citi Sees 70% Upside Despite Cutting Target
Citigroup analyst Tyler Radke resumed coverage of CoreWeave with a Buy/High Risk rating and a $135 price target. While this represents a significant cut from Citi’s previous $192 target, it still implies approximately 70% upside from current levels.
The analyst highlighted that demand for CoreWeave’s GPU-powered cloud infrastructure remains overwhelming.
According to Radke, the company frequently turns away customers due to capacity constraints, with an estimated $50 billion in potential spending from Microsoft alone going to other providers because CoreWeave simply cannot accommodate the volume.
Citi projects CoreWeave will swing to profitability sooner than Wall Street consensus expects, forecasting $384 million in net income for fiscal 2026.
DOE Genesis Mission Validates Government Strategy
Adding momentum to the rally, CoreWeave announced its participation in the Department of Energy’s Genesis Mission. The program connects research institutions, supercomputing centers, and AI platforms to accelerate scientific discovery and strengthen national security.
CoreWeave will make its purpose-built AI cloud platform available for advanced scientific workloads as part of the initiative. This follows the company’s launch of CoreWeave Federal earlier this year, a unit dedicated to serving U.S. government agencies and defense partners.
Massive Contract Backlog Anchors Growth Story
CoreWeave’s Q3 2025 results revealed a revenue backlog exceeding $55 billion, with major enterprise agreements driving visibility:
- OpenAI partnership expanded to approximately $22.4 billion in total commitments
- Meta deal valued at up to $14.2 billion with expansion options
- At least two enterprise contracts expected to exceed $100 million in annual recurring revenue
The company reported Q3 revenue of approximately $1.36 billion with bookings surging 85% quarter-over-quarter. However, supply constraints and data center delays shifted some revenue recognition into Q1 2026.
Recovery From 60% Drawdown
The rally provides relief for shareholders who endured a punishing second half of 2025. CoreWeave shares fell more than 60% from their June peak of approximately $183.58 amid concerns about data center financing, execution delays, and broader skepticism about AI infrastructure spending.
The company currently operates 41 data centers with roughly 90 megawatts of active power and approximately 2.9 gigawatts of contracted power capacity. Its transition from cryptocurrency mining origins to AI cloud infrastructure has positioned it as a specialist alternative to hyperscale cloud providers.
Analyst Targets Show Wide Dispersion
Wall Street remains divided on CoreWeave’s prospects. MarketBeat data shows analyst price targets ranging from $32 to $200, with a consensus around $127.70. The wide spread reflects ongoing uncertainty about the company’s ability to execute its capital-intensive buildout while managing significant debt obligations.
CoreWeave reported a net loss of approximately $110 million in Q3 alongside $310.6 million in net interest expense, underscoring how financing costs can pressure the bottom line even as operating metrics improve.
Despite these concerns, CoreWeave maintains a gross margin of nearly 74% and counts over 60% of its revenue from investment-grade clients, providing some stability to its growth trajectory.
